Mission WSOP

Hey everyone still willing to look here and see a complete and utter lack of updates on a day to day basis.  Thought I would drop in and provide some updates and throw out an idea that I’m working on for the site.

First, let’s hit the updates.  Online, I’ve gone to playing mostly PL Omaha for the past month or so.  This has been a positive bankroll move and I am currently sitting at $3900 on Full Tilt, $270 on Poker Stars and $110 on Bodog bringing the Online Poker bankroll to a highwater mark of $4280.  So, in roughly a year, I have turned $50 into $4,280… that’s a 8460% ROI if my calculations are correct.  I would say that is money well spent.

Some minor issues with my online game have been my inability to devote much time to poker.  I went to Niagara Falls last week and have been focused on my writing for Baseball Digest Daily and Seamheads and loving this baseball season which totally provides me with little time to play.  I qualified for the WSOP qualifier on Poker Stars and then forgot about it and missed the final qualifier on Saturday… DOH!!!!!!!  I haven’t been following the WSOP as religiously as I normally would since I am still a bit disappointed that I wasn’t there this year but it is amazing to see how many pros have won bracelets this year… I think it will be a good thing for the game.

Live poker has been nearly non-existent for me.  I played in the $200 Buy-In Stud event at the Borgata Poker Open, lasted about 6 hours and busted out somewhere in the middle of the pack.  In our home games, I notched a 2nd place finish and won last night.  Last night’s game was pretty amazing from the standpoint that I was never really in trouble until I got heads up and then had to double up by hitting an 8-outer to get to even in chips.  Then, I slowly but surely took out Drew who is one of the tougher players there.  I haven’t calculated the points for the site after last night’s results but I am pretty sure that win will catapult me to a place I don’t think I’ve ever been in in a season — first on the points list.  I am always near the top but this is my first stop there.  I also notched my fifth win and 18th cash in 46 tournaments.

As far as my thoughts on this site.  As soon as this season’s WSOP ends, I will be focused on accomplishing building a poker bankroll big enough to tackle at least one event at the WSOP in ‘09.  If anyone out there reads the site and has a desire to do the same in ‘09 and also has an interest in blogging about it, I will be looking to add a few writers to the site in the next two months.  My e-mail address is bjoseph22=at=comcast.net (sub @ for =at=).  One thing I’m looking for is people willing to practice similar strict bankroll management practices to prove that a smart player can work their bankroll successfully.  This would all be discussed prior to giving access to the blogging piece.  If no one responds, then it will just continue to be me.

Long time, no blog… I haven’t had a chance really to blog about my latest poker escapades but I have had a few nice cashes recently to bolster the bankroll.  First, I took down the $4,000 Guaranteed HORSE tournament on Full Tilt for an $1,100 cash and then added a $109 Super Satellite to the FTOPS Main Event but cashed it in instead of using it.  Now, the bankroll sits at somewhere above $3,500 which is a nice jump in the bankroll.  I also am close to cracking the Top 100 on Bluff’s PokerDB Razz rankings.

It wasn’t all good as I tried to satellite into the FTOPS Razz event but fell short.  I wanted to play in the event but a $300 buy-in was just a little too rich for my blood. 

I don’t think I commented on the recent change made to the WSOP Main Event but since everyone else in the poker world has, I figured why not me too.  If you haven’t heard, the Main Event will play down to the final table and then will be stopped and play will resume 4 months later and played on tape delay on television.  This gives Harrah’s and ESPN a chance to market 9 players before it is decided rather than 1 player afterwards.  From a marketing standpoint, I think it is genius but opens the game up to some integrity issues as well as a number of other factors that many have mentioned… although I am still for the change.  If anyone who makes the final table and is unhappy with the decision, I will gladly take their spot.

Here’s the pictures of my recent results from my big win:

Some time last June, I came up with this idea to win $7/day or so and earn $2,000 to play in the World Series of Poker in 2008.  After long deliberation and a look at my current bankroll which is above where I needed it to be but not by much (right now, I’m just a few dollars shy of $2200), I’ve made a couple of decisions:

1. While I’m where I need to be as far as my bankroll is concerned, I’m not ready to start back at the level I would have to if I were to deplete my bankroll to pay for the $1,500 buy-in and the additional expenses of a trip to Vegas that I wanted to use my bankroll for.  So, I’m putting off the trip to Vegas to play in the WSOP until I have double in my bankroll to pay for what I need.  So, in this case, I would have to be at at least $4,000 in my bankroll to make this possible.

2. I am focusing on solid cash game play to build my bankroll.  From now on, whenever I play cash games, I am tracking my results in Excel and keeping track of my hourly rate and my BB/100 win rates.  I’ve designed a spreadsheet and so far it is working out well as I have been focusing on $0.50/$1 or $1/$2 Razz. 

3. I will take some bigger risks with my bankroll to play in some larger online tournaments in the big special events on either Full Tilt or Poker Stars.  The first one I’m contemplating is the $300 buy-in Razz event on Full Tilt in early May. 

4. I will play in at least one preliminary event in a poker series in Atlantic City prior to the end of the year.  Right now, I’m targeting the $200 buy-in Stud event in June at the Borgata Summer Open.

When all is said and done, while it is disappointing to concede that the play is to skip the WSOP this year (although I still may make the trek to Vegas for a few days), I think it is the smart play.  I would have had to payout from my bankroll now to have it for Vegas and I’m just not ready to drop down in level as much I am supposed to to go back to below $700 in bankroll.  Maybe losing the imaginary line of $2000 will help spark a bankroll run to really ignite my play as I feel there was something about that magical imaginary line that was affecting my play.

I’ve also decided to devote more of my blog to poker and less rambling about nonsense.  We’ll see how that goes.

Next year’s WSOP schedule has 23 different variants of poker and 3 restricted events (1 for casino employees, ladies and seniors) and it would take $230,000 to buy-in to all 55 events (maybe Neverbeg will stake Florence, the 75-year-old housekeeper at The Rio to play in all 55 as you’d have to be a female senior who works for the casino to do so).  After looking through the schedule, I decided to break down the WSOP into various tiers.

Tier One Events (2 Events Total)

• Event #54: $10,000 World Championship No-Limit Hold’em (a.k.a. The Main Event)
  The event that made Chris Moneymaker a household name and launched a poker boom that is still going strong.  This year’s Main Event is expected to start on July 3rd and last 13 days.  My guess is that the plan is for Day 1 to be broken down into 4 days and the estimates will soon be flying around about how big the field will be.  I doubt it will be as big as ‘06 when Jamie Gold won but it should be comparable to last year when Jerry Yang did so.
• Event #40: $50,000 World Championship H.O.R.S.E.
  The biggest buy-in tournament begins its third year as part of the WSOP with its first-ever winner being memorialized through a trophy to the winner.  Now, the player who takes down this most prestigious event will receive a bracelet, the prize money and The Chip Reese Award.  Freddy Deeb won the 2nd incarnation of this in ‘07.

Tier Two Events (8 Events Total)

• Event #1: $10,000 World Championship Pot-Limit Hold’em
  This year’s first new $10,000 event kicks off the WSOP on May 30th.  This was actually part of the ‘07 WSOP but was just a $5k buy-in.  Allen Cunningham was last year’s Pot-Limit World Champion.
• Event #8: $10,000 World Championship Mixed Event (I call it HORSENOPOLOW)
  The most unique event of the ‘08 WSOP.  There are the 5 variants of poker played in HORSE with added rounds of No Limit Hold’em, Pot Limit Omaha and 2-7 Lowball.  I will go out on a limb and say this event will draw in many of the big name pros.  The 2-7 Lowball round should make it very interesting. (Did I mention I have won 100% of all 2-7 Lowball MTTs I’ve ever played?)
• Event #14: $10,000 World Championship 7-Card Stud
  Another bigger buy-in for a non-No-Limit event should excite the seasoned pros.  Chris Reslock won last year’s Stud World Championship.  At 180 players last year, it will be interesting to see if this year’s tournament reaches the same heights.  I’m going to make my first bold prediction and say Phil Ivey wins this event.
• Event #25: $10,000 World Championship Heads Up No-Limit Hold’em
  The exciting part is that the Heads Up tournament returns.  The disappointing part is that while the ‘08 WSOP contains 13 straight No Limit Hold’em events, they stuck by the single Heads Up tournament.  Daniel Schreiber won last year’s 392 player event that was half price.  At $10k, it’ll be interesting to see where the number of players will fall to.  I’m going with roughly 256 players.
• Event #30: $10,000 World Championship Limit Hold’em
  Saro Getzoyan took down the ‘07 WSOP World Championship of Limit Hold’em.  What the effect of the $10k buy-in on events such as this should be interesting as the bigger name pros should be excited about the thinner fields brought on by the bigger buy-ins.
• Event #33: $5,000 World Championship 7-Card Stud Hi-Low
  It kept the World Championship moniker so I figured it deserved Tier Two status.  However, this is one of the World Championship dubbed tournaments that did not increase to a $10,000 Buy-In but was upped from $3,000.  Last year’s final table featured David Sklansky, Thor Hansen, Dutch Boyd, Scotty Nguyen and the eventual winner, Eli Elezra.
• Event #37: $10,000 World Championship Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 Or Better
  Another sign that Omaha community games are becoming more popular is that the ‘08 WSOP contains 3 Omaha Hi-Low tournaments (instead of 1 as in ‘07) and a larger buy-in event as the one here.  The only Omaha Hi-Low event in ‘07 was just $1500 to enter and was won by Alexander Kravchenko.  Kravchenko later made a run at the Main Event finishing at the final table.
• Event #50: $10,000 World Championship Pot-Limit Omaha
  The only other $10k event other than the Main Event and the $50k HORSE returns.  Last year’s final table was amazing with Robert Mizrachi capturing the bracelet and Patrik Antonius, Marco Traniello and Doyle Brunson making the final table.  I almost put this on Tier One but slid it into Tier Two on second thought.

Tier Three Events (8 Events Total)

• Event #4: $5,000 Mixed Hold’em (Limit Hold’em/No-Limit Hold’em)
  For some reason, this tournament lost its’ World Championship status.  Maybe drawing 451 players to kick-off the ‘07 WSOP or having the youngest player to ever win a WSOP event (Steve Billirakis at 21 years, 10 days) wasn’t enough to keep it but it’s still going to draw a strong field. 
• Event #11: $5,000 No-Limit Hold’em Shoot-Out
  This is the first of two No-Limit Shoot-Outs in the 2008 Series.  2007 saw just one Shoot-Out and with 899 players entering the lower buy-in event, a need was seen to add this bigger buy-in event that favors Sit & Go-style players.
• Event #18: $5,000 No-Limit 2-7 Lowball w/ Re-Buys
  Oddly enough, this event also lost the tag of "World Championship" from ‘07 to ‘08 so I slid it into the 3rd Tier.  This tournament had just 78 entries but generated an amazing prize pool of nearly $1.5 million when there were 226 re-buys.  8 players made the final table and Barry Greenstein bubbled with his 8th place finish.  The rest of the table featured Todd Brunson, Freddy Deeb, Andrew Black, Lamar Wilkinson, Shawn Sheikhan, Chad Brown and the winner, Erik Seidel. 
• Event #21: $5,000 No-Limit Hold’em
  The discount Main Event!  The 2nd largest buy-in event of ‘08 for No-Limit Hold’em players.
• Event #22: $3,000 H.O.R.S.E.
  The $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. tournament’s ugly sister.  It’s H.O.R.S.E. without the sexiness of the $50,000 buy-in.  With the edition of a few other mixed games, the H.O.R.S.E. variant dropped its second biggest buy-in from $5k to $3k.  Don’t expect this one to be on ESPN.
• Event #28: $5,000 Pot-Limit Omaha w/ Re-Buys
  One of the more entertaining final tables from ESPN’s ‘07 coverage was this event.  The prize pool was $2.9 million and the winner, Burt Boutin took down over $800,000.  If you watched the ‘07 coverage, this was the tournament featuring Humberto Brenes, John Juanda, David "Devilfish" Ulliott and Minh Ly amongst its final table.
• Event #29: $3,000 No-Limit Hold’em
  Another cheaper version of the Main Event.  These usually bring out big fields and new winners.
• Event #46: $5,000 No-Limit Hold’em Short-Handed (6-MAX)
  A lot of pros flock to the short-handed games.  This is this year’s largest buy-in of the three short-handed games presented for the ‘08 schedule.  Bill Edler took down the third biggest prize pool in 2007 by winning this event.

Tier Four Events (16 Events Total)

• Event #5: $1,000 No-Limit Hold’em w/ Re-Buys
  These re-buy tournaments create some interesting action and sizable prize pools.  Both $1k buy-in events paid the winner over $500k.
• Event #7: $2,000 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #10: $2,500 Omaha/7-Stud Hi-Low-8 Or Better
  Thomas Schneider won this event on his way to 2007 WSOP Player Of The Year.
• Event #13: $2,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #16: $2,000 Limit Omaha-Split-Hi-Low-8 Or Better
• Event #20: $2,000 Limit Hold’em
• Event #23: $2,000 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #24: $2,500 Pot Limit Hold’em/Omaha
  I went back to 1990 and I can’t find this variant anywhere in the mix of games at the WSOP which makes this a truly unique event for this year’s WSOP.
• Event #26: $1,500 Razz
  The only Razz event of the ‘08 WSOP. 341 players were bested by Team Poker Stars member Katja Thater in ‘07, the only woman to win a WSOP event not specifically for women in 2007.
• Event #31: $2,500 No-Limit Hold’em Short-Handed (6-Max)
• Event #38: $2,000 Pot-Limit Hold’em
  Interesting to see such a large drop-off from the $10k World Championship of Pot Limit to $2,000.
• Event #43: $1,500 Pot-Limit Omaha Split-Hi-Low-8 Or Better
  The only Pot-Limit version of this variant in ‘08.
• Event #44: $1,000 No-Limit Hold’em w/ Re-Buys
  These re-buy tournaments create some interesting action and sizable prize pools.  Both $1k buy-in events paid the winner over $500k.
• Event #45: $2,500 Limit 2-7 Lowball
  Last year’s event featured two Lowball events but both had the re-buy attachment.  This one does not.
• Event #48: $2,000 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #53: $1,500 Limit Hold’em Shoot-Out
  The only Limit Shoot-Out on the ‘08 schedule.

Tier Five Events (18 Events Total)

• Event #2: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #3: $1,500 Pot-Limit Hold’em
• Event #6: $1,500 Limit Omaha Split-Hi-Low-8 Or Better
• Event #9: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em Short-Handed (6-Max)
• Event #12: $1,500 Limit Hold’em
• Event #17: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em Shoot-Out
• Event #19: $1,500 Pot Limit Omaha
• Event #27: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #32: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #34: $1,500 Pot Limit Omaha w/ Re-Buys
• Event #35: $1,500 7-Card Stud
• Event #36: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #39: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #41: $1,500 Mixed Hold’em (Limit/No-Limit)
• Event #47: $1,500 7-Card Stud Hi-Low-8 Or Better
• Event #49: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #51: $1,500 H.O.R.S.E.
• Event #52: $1,500 No-Limit Hold’em

Restricted Tier Events (3 Events Total)

• Event #15: $1,000 World Championship Ladies No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #42: $1,000 World Championship Seniors No-Limit Hold’em
• Event #55: $500 Casino Employees No Limit Hold’em

I don’t know how I missed this on Tuesday but the 2008 WSOP Schedule was announced!  Here’s the link.

For me, one date jumps out, in particular.  Once the schedule was announced, I quickly scrolled down to June 13th… my birthday.  And there it was: The $1,500 Buy-In Razz event at 5 PM.  Is this my first WSOP event?  I don’t know yet but the stars seem aligned.

Anyway, I’ll break down the impressive schedule of events tonight.  I am so excited to dig into what looks like the WSOPs most intense schedule yet.

I have been absolutely abysmal in tournament play lately.  I can’t seem to find a rythym and on the occassion that I do, I get unlucky.  My bankroll is right around $1180 which is slightly down over the last couple of days but really just about the same.  I have been this sick combination of card dead in NL Hold’em and have poorly played in my HORSE/Razz/Stud tournaments.  Plus, I haven’t cashed in a PL Omaha Sit & Go in 4 days… I was cashing in those about twice a day until recently.  It’s getting pretty frustrating.

On the flip side, I’ve been making it all back in cash games.  I would have had a killer night tonight if my two pair didn’t get cracked by runner-runner flush or I didn’t walk into Aces with Kings.  I did manage to suck out with 10s when a player flopped trip 7s but it was a small pot compared to the other two.  The problem is that I need a big tournament cash to sweeten the bankroll quickly and I just haven’t gotten that lately.

So, what is in store this weekend? 

Saturday is the $10k Bronze Iron Man Freeroll on Full Tilt at 3:15 and WSOSP #5 (NL Heads Up) at 4.

Sunday is the PokerStars WBCOOP at 3 and WSOSP #6 (Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo) at 2:30.

I like my chances to at least cash in one of these with the exception of PL Omaha Hi/Lo which I find to be nauseating to play anymore.

Finally, I’m looking forward to week 2 of the Stake & Stock that I started on Surfers Poker.  I sucked in week one, only cashing in 1/5 of the satellites but at least I broke even.  I want another crack at it soon but have to wait until Monday.  Frustrating, indeed!

In other news, the WSOP schedule for 2008 should be out soon.  The dates were announced but that’s really a non-story other than it was expanded by 2 days.  The schedule should be available soon!

I’ll go out on a limb and make my baseball predictions:

Boston over Cleveland in the AL
Colorado over Arizona in the NL
A-Rod will opt to leave… and Joe Torre won’t be asked to come back.

First, a bankroll update… with one Sit & Go still in progress for tonight, the bankroll sits at $900.13.  It’s been a rough go of it in MTTs but I have been holding my own in Sit & Gos, especially PL Omaha Hi.

Where do I start?  As an "Eagles fan" I should probably start there.  I know it is somewhat frowned upon to question your allegiance to your favorite team, especially if they are the hometown team, but if you watched the Eagles blow a prime opportunity to steal a game on the road on Sunday, you would know why I am questioning just that.  I’ve come to expect it with the Phillies.  The Eagles, on the other hand, I can’t used to them letting me down.  Sure, they have fallen short year after year but they have been highly successful and come awful close.  The Phillies on the other hand are 2 1/2 out of the Wild Card with 17 to play and will probably finish 1 game out.

So, why am I so upset about the Eagles?  First, they lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, 16-13 to the stinkin’ Packers.  Second, if their coach got them prepared at all, maybe they would have won this game.  But the Eagles don’t see the value of preseason.  They let Jeremy Bloom (the skiier they drafted two years ago as the savior of the Special Teams) return kicks and punts all preseason only to ditch him the week before the season and throw anyone who they felt the whim to throw back to receive punts and kicks.  I’ll give the Eagles a pass on the fact that they still don’t have a ‘go to’ receiver… but the Special Teams was an absolute joke. 

At this point, I don’t know how much more energy I can invest in being a fan of this team.  The last few years of the Reid-McNabb era have been rough.  There was the TO thing, the opening loss to Atlanta a few years ago, the McNabb injury last year and then salvaging of a season.  I might have to declare my free agency at the end of the season and see if another team picks me up.  The most difficult thing is that I’ve already had the luxury of enjoying a Titans win (I’m a huge Vince Young fan), a Chargers win (my perennial AFC team) and my hatred for the Cowboys is gone.  I know it’s only one game but it is indicative of what this team has delivered since the Super Bowl appearance.

The WSOPE is almost over.  The European version of the WSOP is already conducting the Main Event.  If you blinked you may have missed the 3 event European version of the 40+ event US originated WSOP.  There were 105 entrants into the first event which was a $2500 buy-in HORSE event.  Jennifer Harman, Kirk Morrison, Chris Ferguson, Alexander Kravchenko and Joe Beevers all made the final table and Jennifer Harman finished 2nd.  Some guy named Thomas Bihl won the event.

The 2nd event was a $5000 buy-in Pot Limit Omaha tournament.  Tony G and Andy Bloch made the final table and Dario Alioto won the 165-player tournament.

Before giving a brief Main Event update, I want to mention that Pot Limit Omaha is becoming the new Hold’em of the game.  If you go online and play, the big pros now all sit and play this game rather than Hold’em.  It is a much more action-friendly game and the pros have a distinct edge in this game because there are a lot more timid players in this game rather than the aggressive Hold’em players.

The WSOPE Main Event is into Day 2 after Day 1A & 1B have been completed.  I am guessing that the 362 player field size is a disappointment but the names doing well so far are not.  The biggest of names is Phil Hellmuth who currently sits in 3rd in chips.  I’ll be keeping a close eye on this as it progresses and it may shape up to be one heck of a final table.

Finally, when you are at a poker table, let me give you some advice.  First, don’t announce information about your folded hand by throwing a hissy fit when the board brings 2 Queens and you folded Q2.  If you can’t stand hitting the flop when you fold… don’t fold!  Second, don’t blame the dealer for the fact that you suck.  Finally, don’t ever apologize.  NEVER EVER APOLOGIZE!!!  Not because I have no manners but because you don’t really mean it.  If you were near a staircase, you wouldn’t push a player toward the stairs on purpose and then apologize when they fall down those stairs.  So, when you make a bad play and beat me for $200, don’t f—in’ apologize.  It really is condesending, hollow and rude.  Here’s what I want you to do for me, next time that happens, just give the player the money back if you feel that bad… hmmm… guess you aren’t really that sorry, huh?

I had one of my best days since starting to build my bankroll pennies at a time yesterday bumping the number to $221.29 (that’s +$27.06).  That’s almost 5 days of work in one and puts me back to 8 days ahead of my target.  What’s interesting is the amount of players that will just feed you money at the lower limit tables with practically nothing because it is low limit.  I was playing with Chasing Cammiiee earlier and because the limits were so low she didn’t care that she called me down the whole way over and over again.  Those shorthanded tables are a gold mine when that happens and I’m curious if the higher limit shorthanded tables play out the same way.  The biggest challenge to me is going to be to not put my bankroll at risk at the later stages of this when I have the money to play with.  It’s always been my downfall in poker to push myself into the higher limit games and then take a large loss that really destroys my confidence level and dents my bankroll.  When I used to play Stud more exclusively, I worked my bankroll up to the point where I could play 20/40 Stud with some frequency and then stepped up to the next level and got crushed and have really not worked my way back up to that level.  It’s partially because I’ve moved to playing Hold’em more frequently, partially because getting crushed like that can be devastating and partially because Stud has died (well, it’s on life support).

Jerry Yang is the newest name in the poker world and has $8 million reasons to try and prove he wasn’t a fluke next year.  It’s funny how poker works.  A guy like Jerry Yang comes out of nowhere having played poker for only 2 years and wins the Main Event and the first question is "Is this guy for real?".  The guy just turned $225 into $8.2 million so I’m sure he really doesn’t care at this point but it seems like you have to win twice now to validate your first win unless you’ve earned your respect some other way.  The Main Event coincided with the televising of Gavin Smith falling short of his bracelet run in ‘07, finishing 2nd to a retired Marine on his honeymoon.  Smith is an accomplished professional and was WPT Player Of The Year a few years back but that was his first WSOP Final Table.

It was scary how quickly Full Tilt capitalized on Yang’s win.  While Yang was not a Full Tilt spokesperson before this, Full Tilt already has a graphic on their site of Yang at the Final Table in his Full Tilt gear with the message "Congratulations, Jerry Yang!  Friend Of Full Tilt".  I’m sure that will help boost Full Tilt’s popularity especially since it seems that Yang may be a better poker ambassador than Jamie Gold. 

Yang did it in exciting fashion, crushing the final table and he performed the art of the re-suck on the final hand.  For the record, Yang was ahead when his money went all-in with Pocket 8s vs. KQ.  His opponent, Tuan Lam spiked a Queen on the flop but Yang went runner-runner to catch a 5-6-7-8-9 straight to end the event in dramatic fashion.  Call it a walk off straight… ESPN would if they covered poker on SportsCenter every day.

Does that mean Jerry Yang is Who’s Now?

Today, I struggled but still managed to get back on track with a winning day.  Low limit is so rough to play because it is such a small amount of money to win.  I was able to claw, bite and scrape my way to a +$4.23 to $194.23.  I’m slowly sliding backward on my pace and now just 4 days ahead of the pace needed to pull this off.  But it’s way too early to have any reaction to my progress.

I’ve obviously spent a lot of time talking about poker since embarking on this hare-brained quest, partially because I’m an ego maniac and love attention and partially because if I could pick one thing to do 24 hours a day, it would be poker.  It doesn’t even have to be playing it.  It could be watching it, talking about it, writing it, whatever.  If there were a 24-hour poker channel, I’d be the #1 viewer.  The thing that is most difficult though is having a discussion with a non-poker player or someone who fails to really understand the game.  It usually always ends up coming down to a discussion of the non-poker member of the conversation discounting poker as a game of skill.

Recently, I have had a few of those discussions with my brother who consistently fails to grasp the level of skill involved in poker.  The first discussion occurred when watching Poker After Dark two weeks ago.  The hand involved Clonie Gowen who held Ace-3 suited.  She was the big stack and made a raise only to have another player go over the top all-in but that player was short stacked.  That player held pocket Kings.  At that point, I quickly did the match and figured she would be getting better than 2-to-1 on her money so she had to call.  Of course, my brother disagreed because all she had was an "ace with a three".  I tried to break down the math and it helped that the percentages were right there on the screen but he just didn’t get it.  The discussion then became rather juvenile and unproductive and every hand after that the comment was made that whatever the player had was not as good as an "ace with a three".  Clonie did call and won the hand when she hit the ace. 

The second discussion occurred tonight when talking about the Final Table of the WSOP.  I was criticizing Danny Sheridan’s oddsmaking on the players at the Final Table of the Main Event and I commented that Sheridan’s odds took very little into account the skill of the player and focused mainly on the chip stacks.  My brother felt that the odds should basically be made based on chip stacks because if they made it this far, they were all about the same skill level.  Once I attempted to argue that that was not the case as there were players with serious deep tournament experience still remaining and that some of the players may have defied the odds slightly to get this far, the discussion broke down into a commentary on luck vs. skill.  Rather than bore you with the details of this inane argument, luck is absolutely a factor when it comes down to individual isolated results but overall success in poker comes down to the skill level of the player involved.

Here’s a few analogies that bring to light the luck vs. skill argument.  In an individual sport such as boxing, a boxer could outbox his opponent for 11 rounds and then get caught with a crisp shot in the 12th round and go down and not get back up.  Despite 11/12th of the fight being dominated by that boxer, they lose.  If you look at the Mike Tyson-Buster Douglas fight, you will struggle to find someone to say that Douglas was the more skilled boxer going in yet he won the fight.  I’m not saying it’s luck, it just is what it is.  Then there’s the ‘86 World Series.  The Red Sox were almost the World Series Champions that year.  Unfortunately, the ball went through Buckner’s legs.  The last time I checked, no one has discounted the Mets World Series Championship because they only won because they got lucky that the ball went through Buckner’s legs.  That’s just part of the game apparently. 

Dumbest Person In The World Candidate #2

The football world is filled with dumb players and the first two candidates are from the world of football.  Michael Vick could be headed to jail in the near future due to his possible involvement in illegal dog fighting and cruelty to animals.  The details of the crimes are grim and include a losing Bad Newz Kennel dog being doused with water and electrocuted.  What’s the Bad Newz Kennel?  Apparently, it is the Kennel that Vick says he had nothing to do with but witnesses and other circumstantial evidence would say otherwise… like a reference on his own webpage that lists his hometown as Newport News (BadNewz).  So far, Vick has played dumb but dug himself a deep hole that he may not be able to wiggle his way out of.  The hole is much deeper than any of the shallow graves located on his property for the mistreated animals that either were killed during their barbaric battles or afterward if they let down their owners.  The biggest challenge is going to be that while Vick has proven on the football field that he can get out of the most unlikely situations, his athleticism will not help him here and without that, Vick could be dead in the water.  So, either Vick is a victim as he claims and would make him one of the dumbest people alive as he pins the blame on family members who took advantage of his hospitality and used his home as a dog gladiator arena OR he’s even dumber because he put a lucrative career on the line in order to enjoy watching a highly illegal activity take place.  We crucify Barry Bonds because we think he used steroids and Terrell Owens because we think he’s a selfish jerk… I’m hoping the Vick backlash is a little tougher on him.  If you are unsure why I say this still, read the details for yourself.

So, life is not heavenly in the City Of Angels for Becks.  The long flight from England has reaggravated David Beckham’s ankle injury and now his long-awaited (and televised) American debut against Chelsea this weekend may not happen.  The US soccer world (and ESPN who can’t stop plugging the event) is on pins and needles waiting to see what will unfold.  They will be steaming if Beckham is on the bench at gametime.  It won’t be the first group that would be steaming over the Beckham effect.  Beckham has alienated his teammates over his pay as Becks will make $6.5 million this year. The team’s other top player and captain, Landon Donovan, will make $900k.  There’s even one player that is slated to make $18,000 this year.  A shift manager at McDonald’s makes a little over $20,000.  The rumors have swirled that Becks will be made captain and Donovan will push for mutiny or the team may go on strike… all is not well in Los Angeles.  You gotta love a good soap opera.

All is well in Vegas as the 2007 WSOP comes to a close.  They are down to heads up action and Jerry Yang is absolutely dominating the Final Table.  Yang’s $225 satellite may become an $8 million + payday as he currently sits at $117 million in chips versus Tuan Lam’s $10 million in chips.  Yang has put 6 of 7 of the players to the rail including my pick, Alex Kovchenko who held on to finish 4th.  Yang took out players so fast in the beginning that it looked like it was going to be one of the fastest final tables ever.  He eliminated players on Hand #15 (Philip Hilm), Hand #21 (Lee Watkinson), Hand #28 (Lee Childs) and Hand #56 (Hevad "Rain" Khan).  His run was stopped by Raymond Rahme eliminating John Kalmar on Hand #60 and the newswire stirred at how the final table may wrap up in one of the quickest finals ever.  Then, down to the Final Four, it took 107 hands for a player to get eliminated and Yang did it again by eliminating Kravchenko.  Then he eliminated crowd favorite Raymond Rahme two hands later.

Yang’s domination is amazing… He won 67 of 169 hands getting down to heads up and so far in 21 hands of heads up play (more than the last two years of heads up play combined), Yang has won 17 of them for a total of 84 out of 190.  If Yang doesn’t win, it will be a storied collapse.  if he does, it will be one of shear and utter domination.  Unfortunately, it’s 6:15 AM here and I have work… guess I’ll be finding out who wins when I wake up.  If Lam makes a comeback, it may still be going on.

The first negative hit to the bankroll occurred.  I guess i was bound to happen as my 3+ week winning streak has ended with a -$13 day.  Back to $190 but still ahead of schedule.  I got killed playing heads up 7-Stud Hi/Lo by a guy who just couldn’t miss on 7th street.  In addition, I made it through Round 1 of the Gutshot.com qualifier for the Borgata Poker Open.  All I had to do was outlast 91 other players to make the top 9 of a 100 player tournament.  Now, I’m set to play on Sunday and will have to outlast at least 100 players to make the top 10 again.  If I can do that, then I get a shot at one of 9 trips to the Borgata with the top spot being a $10,000 seat in the Borgata Poker Open.  The other 8 spots are $1,000 satellite seats.

It’s scary what is considered news these days.  Even scarier that I read most of it.  Apparently, Lindsay Lohan is out of rehab again.  She was spotted her first night out at PURE in Vegas with an alcohol monitor on.  At the end of the night, she was seen headed back to her suite at Caesar’s with Criss Angel.  I was going to put some crude joke in here about Criss Angel making something disappear but I thought the better of it.  So, why is it that every time I see Lindsay Lohan’s name I have to read the story?  I know it is going to be a complete waste of time but I’m still fascinated for some reason.

Star Jones is going to reveal how she lost all that weight.  I would tell you more but once the headline said Star Jones I clicked to the next story.  the only reason I know the rest is because I read really fast and I accidentally saw the rest of the headline.

In other former "The View" panel member news.  Rosie O’Donnell received an offer from Donald Trump to appear on the next edition of "The Apprentice".  I am a big reality TV watcher… American Idol, Survivor, So You Think You Can Dance?, Hell’s Kitchen, Celebrity Fit Club just to name a few.  Heck, I even watched Pirate Master this summer.  However, "The Apprentice" has never really caught my attention.  Despite declining ratings every season since its’ inception, "The Apprentice" is coming back with a group of celebrity contestants and The Donald has asked Rosie’s people if she’d do it.  She’s declined already and no one has been named to the cast but I might be enticed to watch if there’s a chance I get to see Donald Trump fire some C-List celebrities.  I’m still waiting for Survivor’s celebrity season.  Guess it hasn’t quite jumped the shark yet to make that happen.

Finally, onto Final Table news.  The Final Table is set and there are 9 players remaining that will begin play in the next few hours.  If you want to see if live, you could plunk down $20 and watch the "action" unfold on PPV.  The "action" will be extremely slow paced as all live events are at this point and the only thing that could save such a telecast is great commentary and guests throughout.  Plus, a ton of the pros who come around and watch get completely sloshed and then say whatever on a live feed.  It might be worth the $20.

Here’s how the final table sets up (Where’s Phil Gordon to do the chip counts?… Oh wait, he’ll be doing the PPV broadcast tonight):

Seat 1 - John Kalmar ($20.32 million in chips - 3rd)

Kalmar, from Chorly, Lancashire (UK) is a 34-year-old professional poker player who rarely makes it to the States.  He actually tried to leave early due to a bad run at the WSOP, failing to cash throughout the lower buy-in events.  When he attempted to change his flight and found out it would cost $600, he instead entered a $500 Satellite for a seat at the Main Event, the last satellite run at the Rio.  The rest as they say is history.

Seat 2 - Lee Childs (13.24 million in chips - 5th)

Childs is 35 and from Reston, Virginia, a suburb of Washington DC.  He is an aspiring poker pro who recently quit his job at a high tech firm affiliated with National Geographic.  Every bio I read says he loves his incredible wife.  So, he must love his wife.

Seat 3 - Philip Hilm (22.07 million in chips - CHIP LEADER)

The 31-year-old from Cambridge (UK) is currently on top of the poker world’s biggest tournament.  He’s a native of Denmark and spent 2 years living in Poland getting to know his mother’s side of the family.  I’m sure his bio will bulk up the deeper he takes this chip stack into the Main Event.

Seat 4 - Jerry Yang ($8.45 million in chips - 8th)

Yang is a 39-year-old psychologist and social worker from Temecula, California.  He has 6 children and was born in Laos.  He’s only been playing poker for two years and he won his seat playing a $250 satellite at the Pechanga casino in California.  He’s pledged to donate 10% of his winnings to three charities - The Make-A-Wish Foundation, Feed the Children and The Ronald McDonald House.  If he wins it all, that would be an $800,000+ donation.  Exiting first would only be around $50k. 

Seat 5 -Raymond Rahme ($16.32 million in chips - 4th)

Rahme is the oldest player remaining in the field at 62.  He’s also the first player to ever make the final table from the continent of Africa as he calls Johannesburg, South Africa.  He took fourth place in the "All Africa Poker Championship", the largest poker tournament ever held in Africa.  This entry was part of his prize.  His supporters have a habit of yellling "Ship It To Africa!" when he wins a pot.  I guess it isn’t any worse than "Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oy! Oy! Oy!"

Seat 6 -Tuan Lam ($21.31 million in chips - 2nd)

Lam was born in Vietnam on New Year’s Day in 1966 during the Vietnam War.  He immigrated to Canada at age 19 and calls Mississauga, Ontario home.  This is his third year at the Main Event and he’s cashed in other tournaments in previous years.  This will be his biggest cash yet.

Seat 7 - Alex Kravchenko ($6.57 million in chips - 9th)

Kravchenko is the short stack and I find it incredibly odd that I’m calling over $6 million in chips the short stack.  The 36-year-old businessman originally from Archangel, Russia now resides in Moscow.  His 8 year poker career took off this year as he became the first ever Russian citizen to win a WSOP bracelet, taking down the largest field in an Omaha Hi/Lo event in the history of the WSOP.  He has won other tournaments in Europe including the Austrian Masters Pot-Limit Championship in 2001 and Russian Pot-Limit Championship the same year.  He won a limit title in the Helsinki Freezeout in 2002 and has cashed over 30 times in his poker career.  Kravchenko will be cashing for the fifth time this year at the WSOP.  What’s more amazing is that he has been short stacked throughout the round of 36 and comes in as the shortest stack at the table.  From what I remember, Joe Hachem was in a similar situation two years ago when he won.  He may not have been the shortest stack but it took a few double ups for him to get back into contention and win.

Seat 8 - Lee Watkinson ($9.92 million in chips - 7th)

Watkinson is an accomplished poker pro and can occassionally be seen playing online at Full Tilt Poker.  He’s 40 and from Cheney, Washington.  He owns a WSOP bracelet and got his by winning the Pot-Limit Omaha Championship in 2006.  He’s cashed numerous times at the WSOP and has been seen on the WPT also.  He qualified by playing at Full Tilt and would receive an additional $10 million if he were to win the event from Full Tilt.  He and his fiance Tammi Derosa are committed to rescuing and retiring captive chimpanzees that are used in everything from research labs to movies.  Watkinson is a heavy supporter of these types of charities and expect a decent donation going that way when Watkinson exits.  He’s probably the favorite to win due to his experience.

Seat 9 - Hevad "Rain" Khan ($9.02 million in chips - 8th)

The youngest player in the field, Khan is 22.  Originally from Poughkeepsie, NY, Khan has moved around the country since attending State University of New York-Albany including San Francisco and Vegas.  He is infamous in the online poker world as screen name "RainKhan".  Khan was once booted from Poker Stars as they identified him as a bot (a computer program set up to play poker).  Khan was spotted on Poker Stars sitting at over 40 Sit & Go’s at one time.  It wasn’t until he sent Poker Stars a video of himself playing in 26 Sit & Go’s that they believed he was not a bot and reinstated him.  Khan has been one of the more interesting characters to remain.

As for my fearless prediction, it’s really a crap shoot as no one has dominated the tournament to this point.  I’m going to go out on a limb and take the longshot on the board, Alex Kravchenko as he has just seemed to play the most consistent poker throughout although it has never shown in his chip stack.  Following the results the last few days, it never seemed like Kravchenko was in serious danger despite being the small stack.  If not Kravchenko, I’ll take Watkinson.

The final table is truly a World Series Of Poker final table as the table has many players from foreign soil.  Two are from England (but one of those was born in Denmark).  One is from Canada (but born in Vietnam).  One from South Africa and Russia.  Of the four players from the US, one was born in Laos and two are from the East Coast and two from the West Coast.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I think whomever wins this year may get a little more respect than the last few winners as there are some accomplished players at this year’s final table.