Mission WSOP

February 29, 2008

10 Poker Truths

The truth is out there… you just have to know where to look.  (Maybe I shouldn’t watch ‘X-Files’ all night long.)  I’ve been playing poker a long time and I’ve realized there are some things that are absolutely true.  Some of them are about my game, some are about the game in general but all of them are 100% true.

1. Pocket Aces is the best hand in poker.

Next time you are sitting at a table and a player says they hate pocket aces, I have a suggestion.  Punch them in the face!  I think they might enjoy it.  They obviously don’t know what is good for them anyway.  I almost put #1 as "I always win with aces" but that’s not exactly true.  I would estimate that I win with pocket aces roughly 90-95% of the time.  Nothing is more exciting than looking down and seeing two matching A’s or seeing two aces pop up on the screen when playing online. 

2. If you want to tell an entertaining poker story, a bad beat story is definitely NOT the way to go!

I used to tell these stories all the time.  Then, I’d be sitting down at a food court near the poker room and hear some schmo on his cell phone boring his friend to death with a story of how some donkey called with J3 under the gun and flopped a boat.  Here’s the deal with bad beat stories, no one really cares.  I remember walking through the area right outside of the Amazon Room at the World Series of Poker in 2005 with my girlfriend.  She would count the number of times she heard the words "… and then a/an (fill in the blank with a card) came on the river!"  It was usually followed by some expletive filled sentence about how lucky his nit opponent was.  I think when we boarded the plane she was in triple digits.

3. It’s more fun to be slightly behind on a coin flip than slightly ahead.

If the two hands flipped pre-flop are 9d-9s and Ah-Kh, I hope I have AK.  It’s just so stressful when you have to root for your hand to hold up.  You are biting your nails on every street and if you fall behind, you usually only have 2 outs for the re-suck.  On the other hand, you have a shot to take the lead on the flop, turn and river.  Sometimes, you are even lucky enough to get additional outs on the turn or river depending on how the board plays.  Granted, I’m giving up a few percentage points but I’ll take it.

4. Good players win and bad players lose.

You have to look at poker players more like pitchers in baseball and less like boxers.  What do I mean by that?  Steve Carlton was probably the greatest left-handed pitcher of all-time and Muhammad Ali was probably the greatest heavyweight boxer of all-time.  Ali won 92% of the time while Carlton won 57% of the time but their success is relative.  In poker, the best players don’t always win but the better players perform better than the less talented players.  If you look at the top 10 players on Card Player in 2007, only one of those players did not have a true poker pedigree.  David Pham, the Player of the Year in 2007, actually won the Player of the Year in 2000 and finished 2nd in 2004.

5. Poker is 65% skill, 10% luck and 25% timing.

A lot of times, timing is mistakenly identified as luck.  Poker is a truly mathematical game.  My educated guess is that if you push with AK and get called by a lower pair 1000 times, you will probably win about 450-500 times.  The thing that I can’t predict is how many times that will be for all of your chips and how many times it will only be for a small percentage of your chips.  An above average player will win his fair share of tournaments but if he/she is playing variable buy-ins, those wins might come in the lower buy-in tournaments rather than the larger buy-in tournaments.  It explains the Top 10 money list in poker and why it includes a player like Chris Moneymaker who is nothing more than an average player who caught fire at just the right time.

6. Live lower limit cash games have moved beyond the books.

I’ve read a lot of books about poker and nothing can prepare you for the way that poker is played at a $1/$2 No Limit game.  The game has moved away from anything resembling poker described in any poker book out there.  The biggest change is pre-flop play as it is now considered standard to raise to anywhere from $12-$25 pre-flop and it is expected that 2-4 players will call said raise.  What’s particularly puzzling is that a player will limp for $2 and then call a $25 raise.  This used to be the way that online cash games went but these players moved to the online game and now the online game has actually become more standard in its play.  I never thought I’d say that.

7. You’re never really sorry.

When you flip over your hand and you are behind I will bet you $10,000 that your first thought isn’t "Man, I hope I don’t hit my card here and suck out because I’d hate to see this guy lose."  So, why do you feel the need to apologize when you do?  In my opinion, this is totally disrespectful to the person who lost.  I know it’s supposed to be the right thing to do but it isn’t like you knocked someone over and helped them up.  In this case, you knocked someone over and just kept walking… if you’re really sorry, give me my money back.  Didn’t think so!

8. The online poker laws in the U.S. are ridiculous.

It’s pretty silly that there are laws out there trying to curtail U.S. citizens from playing online poker.  The laws against people playing poker live outside of casinos and legal poker rooms have been so effective that the U.S. government feels they can have the same impact online, I guess.  Join the Poker Players Alliance and help in their fight to legalize online poker. 

9. "The Grand" will be poker’s version of "Caddyshack".

Woody Harrelson, David Cross, Dennis Farha, Cheryl Hines, Richard Kind and Chris Parnell are the main characters and Ray Romano, Jason Alexander, Gabe Kaplan, Werner Herzog and a pile of poker players also appear in the movie.  It hits theaters March 21st and looks like it will be hilarious.  From what I’ve read, most of the movie was improvised and rumor has it the entire final table was improvised as well.

10. Online poker is not rigged.

If you think online poker is rigged, I have two suggestions.  (1) Don’t play online and (2) drop by my home game and you’ll see all the evidence you need.  As to the first point, if you think online poker is rigged then you are a bigger sucker than those people who play the Money Wheel in the casino.  I don’t play Blackjack online because I don’t trust it.  If I didn’t trust online poker to be legitimate, I couldn’t play it.  If you play enough live poker, you will realize that the stuff you see that "only happens online" actually happens everywhere.  Deal with it!

Friday’s NBA Picks - 2/29

Filed under: Place Your Bets

Yesterday’s Results (0-2) (Overall: 14-15-2 / 48.3%)

Milwaukee/New Jersey UNDER 197.5 (Loss)
Dallas/San Antonio UNDER 182 (Loss)

Today’s Picks

Toronto -10.5 Atlanta 
Seattle +1 Miami
New York/Atlanta OVER 202
Denver/LA Clippers UNDER 213
Washington/Chicago OVER 197

February 28, 2008

Thursday’s NBA Picks - 2/28

Filed under: Sports, Place Your Bets

Yesterday’s Results (1-1-1) (Overall: 14-13-2 / 52%)

Charlotte +7.5 New York (Loss)
Charlotte/New York OVER 197 (Win)
Utah/Detroit UNDER 198 (Push)

Today’s Picks

Milwaukee/New Jersey UNDER 197.5
Dallas/San Antonio UNDER 182

February 27, 2008

Wednesday’s NBA Picks - 2/27

Filed under: Place Your Bets

Yesterday’s Results (1-2) (Overall: 13-12-1 / 52%)

Orlando -5 New Jersey (Win)
Utah -7 Minnesota (Loss)
Utah/Minnesota UNDER 199.5 (Loss)

Today’s Picks

Charlotte +7.5 New York
Charlotte/New York OVER 197
Utah/Detroit UNDER 198

February 26, 2008

Tuesday’s NBA Picks - 2/26 And Some Comments On My Latest Picks

Filed under: Sports, Place Your Bets

Yesterday’s Results (1-1) (12-10-1 / 54.5%)

San Antonio -12 Atlanta (Win)
Washington/New Orleans OVER 194 (Loss)

Today’s Picks

Orlando -5 New Jersey
Utah -7 Minnesota
Utah/Minnesota UNDER 199.5

Sports betting can be painful.  It started Friday with the Charlotte-Sacramento game.  I got Charlotte +1 but I liked the game when Charlotte was +2.  Unfortunately, I waited and didn’t call it until the line was at +1.  A few missed free throws, a missed shot at the buzzer and Charlotte becomes a push.  On Saturday, the Nuggets blew a 23 point lead against Milwaukee and actually found a way to lose by 6 to give me a notch in the L column.  Sunday added another vicious finish as Memphis forward Brian Cardinal bombed in a 3 with 14 seconds left to put the game over the number.  Sure, it only cut the Cavs lead to 20 and then they were allowed to dribble out the last 14 seconds but it was a dagger in the heart of the degenerates like me who had to bet the under.  Finally, Monday added one more twist as Washington and New Orleans battled tightly down the end.  Not caring which side won and needing OT to hit the over, it looked like it was over when New Orleans’ Hilton Armstrong missed two free throws with 7.3 seconds left and kept the Hornets trailing by one… until a lane violation was called on Antawn Jamison and Armstrong was able to make his third opportunity and tie the game at 92-92.  With new life and what looked like fate on my side, DeShawn Stephenson decided to crash the party by sinking a 3 at the buzzer for the Wizards and making his first game winning shot in his six-year NBA career.  And send me to another loss.

It wasn’t all misfortune.  The Spurs set a franchise low 5 points in the first quarter and trailed 16-5 after the first quarter.  At halftime, they trailed 37-30.  The 2nd half was a different story as San Antonio started it off with a 21-4 run and then consistently added on to their lead.  By the time the clock read 0:00, the Spurs had completely bounced back and won by 15 to cover. 

Maybe sports betting should come with a surgeon general’s warning.

February 25, 2008

Monday’s NBA Picks - 2/25

Filed under: Place Your Bets

Yesterday’s Results (1-2) (Overall: 11-9-1 / 55%)

Boston -6 Portland (Win)
Sacramento/Orlando OVER 217 (Loss)
Memphis/Cleveland UNDER 196 (Loss - Thanks to a 3 at the buzzer by Memphis who was down 23 at the time)

Today’s Picks

San Antonio -12 Atlanta
Washington/New Orleans OVER 194

February 24, 2008

NBA Picks - Sunday 2/24

Filed under: Place Your Bets

Last Night’s Results (1-2) (Overall 10-7-1 / 58.8%)

Denver -3 Milwaukee (Loss)
Denver/Milwaukee OVER 210.5 (Win)
Indiana/New Jersey OVER 201.5 (Loss)

Today’s Picks

Boston -6 Portland
Sacramento/Orlando OVER 217
Memphis/Cleveland UNDER 196

February 23, 2008

A Great .25/.50 NL 4-Table Session

Filed under: Online Poker

Gobbling up at least 50 Full Tilt points is a daily ritual for me and for the past month and a half, my play has been inconsistent.  Today was the first day I felt "in the zone" in a while.  I’d love to say it was just because I got great cards but in 200 hands I never once hand Aces or Kings.  Instead, I had a lot of hands like AQ, JJ, TT, KQ… hands that usually give me fits to play.  I played them well and was able to pick up a nice $52 profit in 45 minutes and gather 65 Full Tilt points as well.  In additiion, I was able to grab the blinds 12 times out of 200 hands played.  Here’s the stats:

Statistics for 200 Hands

Street = Saw (Saw/Total)
Flop = 59 (30%)
Turn = 30 (15%)
River = 24 (12%)
Showdown = 18 (9%)

Street = Won - Won/Saw (Won/Total)
Pre-flop = 12 - 6% (6%)
Flop = 6 -10% (3%)
Turn = 1 - 3% (1%)
River = 3 - 13% (2%)
Showdown = 12 - 67% (6%)

NBA Picks - Saturday 2/23

Filed under: Place Your Bets

Today’s Picks

Denver -3 Milwaukee
Denver/Milwaukee OVER 210.5
Indiana/New Jersey OVER 201.5

Degeneration!

Filed under: Sports, Place Your Bets

It’s cold and there wasn’t much to do tonight.  I considered renting a video game or popping in an old game to play and decided against that.  I considered playing some more poker but I had played all afternoon (my bankroll is still hovering at $2100).  I considered reading my book.  I thought about going to the gym and was set to go until I realized it was Friday and it closed on Friday and Saturday nights.  In the end, I was watching so much basketball tonight that I decided to go on Bodog and bet the Phoenix-Boston game "live".  What does that mean?  Basically, on Bodog, they allow you to bet situationally throughout the game.  I didn’t get into it until the 2nd half and I was greeted with a $20 credit for free bets as a ‘good customer’ of Bodog so I was basically freerolling.

Before I recap how that went, my NBA night was excellent with a 4-1-1 record.  The one thing that killed me was getting my Charlotte-Sacramento bet in late and instead of me getting 1.5 points, I only got 1 point and it was a push as they lost by 1 in OT.  Talk about a rough break!  At least it was just a push, though. 

Last Night’s Results: 4-1-1 (Overall: 9-5-1, 64.29%)

Charlotte +1 Sacramento (Tie)
Denver -4.5 Chicago (Loss)
Toronto/New York OVER 197 (Win)
Milwaukee/Detroit OVER 189.5 (Win)
Portland/Seattle UNDER 189 (Win)
Dallas/Memphis UNDER 197 (Win)

Finally, to recap my live betting experience.  I was able to get in 21 $1 bets in the second half.  Thanks to 2 big Suns blocks, I was able to net $0.74 in winnings.  The freebet feature helped me collect an additional $11.  Here’s a picture recapping my bets:

I’ll post my NBA picks a little later and maybe do a little more blogging as well.  Take care!

Get free blog up and running in minutes with Blogsome
Theme designed by Ian Main