Mission WSOP

I’m on the verge of having to say that my mission was unaccomplished as my bankroll has nosedived from nearly $2400 last week to $2200 on Monday to just barely over the $2k mark today.  I don’t know what is going on other than I’ve increased the length of my sessions.  The only good news is that on January 31st I get a bonus from Full Tilt which should be around $150.  I’m itching to play live in Atlantic City… maybe I’ll end up there tonight.  My region at work has been restructured again and for once I wasn’t affected by it. (ABOUT TIME!)

The WSOSP III starts this weekend on Surfers Poker.  I’m a 4x Surfers event winner and I won the Surfers Poker After Dark II Championship but I was not able to take down a WSOSP event in WSOSP II. 

I nailed both Championship games with the Pats winning 21-12 (I said 28-20) and the Giants pulling off the upset and making me wrong on my pick but right on my call that the G-men would cover.  So, for the playoffs, I am 7-3 straight up and 7-3 vs. the spread.  I am also 7-0 straight up in games not involving the Giants and 6-1 vs. the spread. 

My bankroll is down to $2200 after a horrible run the last two days.  I have been trying to qualify for the Gold Iron Man status in January and the longer sessions seem to hurt my play.  I was up to $2402 and now I feel like I forgot how to play.  It’s my first bad run and I was expecting it sooner.  It will turn around soon, it always does.  I’m especially upset with my play because I am in the Sit & Go Championship at Surfers… just one of six players to make it to Round 2 and now I’m choking like a dog.

Giants fan rejoice… there’s a good chance my money will be on the Patriots.

Poker has been a slow grind for me lately.  I think this is due to a switch to mostly cash games and sit & gos rather than tournaments.  Tournaments are good for home runs while cash games and sit & gos you mostly get singles and doubles.  The thing with tournaments is there are a lot of strike outs and walks too. 

In one of the strangest occurrences, last night I bailed on a tournament roughly 1/2 way through because I had an opportunity to hang with friends I hadn’t seen in a while and I actually ended up finishing 38th and profiting $5 for the $3.30 buy-in tourney. 

The Aussie Millions poker tournament is at the final table and poker great Erik Seidel is at the final table.  I stole the picture from PokerNews at the bottom of the entry.  It’s Erik Seidel’s lucky penguin that he picked up in Australia.  There are only 5 players left and Seidel is still hanging in there.  I knocked Erik out of a tournament on Full Tilt once… it’s always fun to brag about those things.   Also, you can find a picture of the player who was eliminated in 6th place, Antonio Casale.  He looks like he is about 200 years old.

Last night, I got to see Roger Federer sweat out a close shave against an unranked player to make it through Round 3 of the Australian Open.  Is there any question whether Roger Federer is the greatest tennis player of all-time?  I can’t fathom another player even close to his resume of tennis accomplishments.  Up until this tough battle, Federer had only lost 6 games in his first 2 Australian Open matches and 30 straight sets since his 2006 final match against Marcos Baghdatis.  Federer has won nearly $36 million in his tennis career.  He’s 546-132 lifetime.  Federer has won the last two Australian Open singles titles, four consecutive US Open titles, five straight Wimbledons and has 12 Grand Slam titles to his name.  He’s just two behind Pete Sampras for most Grand Slam wins.  I wish I could say I was this good at anything I have ever done… it must be an amazing feeling.

Finally, it’s prediction time.  The NFL Championship Games are upon us and I’m coming in 6-2.  If we were looking at picking against the spread I’d be 5-3.  With that being said… here are my predictions:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Patriots 28, Chargers 20

Something keeps telling me the Chargers have a chance… but then common sense rears its ugly head and I’m forced to swallow a cold cup of reality.  Why do I think the Chargers can win? 

1. Ladainian Tomlinson has struggled in the playoffs and is due for a breakout game.  The Patriots are better against the pass than the run but Tomlinson is the best in the league and I think he knows this game might lie on his shoulders.
2. The revenge factor is in effect. 
3. Their defense is amazing!  They have a league leading +24 turnover ratio and Shawne Merriman is a beast.
4. They are red hot… 8 straight wins.

One reason why they can’t win:

1. They are playing the 17-0 Patriots.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: PACKERS 24, GIANTS 17

So, here’s how I plan on breaking my jinx.  I pick the Packers to win but the Giants to cover since the spread is 7 1/2.  Now, it totally throws the universe into a tailspin since I can’t be totally wrong in this game.  HA!  Take that, sports gods!  I think the Packers have no problem here and the Giants score a late TD to slide just under the number.

Before the Top 10 list, the charges versus Pacman Jones were dropped.  The original report said he "sucker punched" a stripper when he entered the Body Tap strip club’s office because he was upset that his bracelet and money were stolen.  Now, the charges have been dropped.  Hmmmmm…

I did this a while ago and thought I’d update it:

My Top 10 Top 10 (My Favorite 10 Things At This Very Moment)

10. Sirius
9. Puzzle Quest for Wii 
8. Qdoba 
7. The Wire
6. You Tube
5. Catching up on ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’ On Demand
4. The Chargers
3. My Blackberry Curve
2. The pickle on the Chic-Fil-A Sandwich
1. Chicken, Egg & Cheese On  A Sunflower Multi-grain Bagel from Chic-Fil-A

I haven’t had a chance to review the details but it seems that Pacman Jones is back in the frying pan for yet another strip club incident.  He is now being accused of punching a stripper?  If this is true, all I can say is what the —-!  Pacman… the Titans need you back… stay out of strip clubs, please!

Finally, a real quick look at what is going to drive me absolutely insane today.  My two socks are different and one sock has more elasticity than the other.  How do I know they are different?  One has ‘HANES’ and the other has ‘Hanes’ written on them.  UGH!!!

I had a killer night at the $0.25/$0.50 NL tables tonight.  Every hand I hit, I got paid out on and every hand I missed and got caught, I ended up sucking out on the player.  Well, there was one hand where I was ahead on the flop but the opponent hit runner-runner for a flush to cost me about $21 but I still was able to win $100 in about an hour.  Even at tables where I didn’t do all that well, I was able to get some good fortune in bad situations.  Here’s one example:

I haven’t been talking about poker much in my poker blog!

I had a decent night tonight at the tables with 2 9-Player Sit & Go wins for +$37.50 and a 3rd place 9-Player Sit & Go finish for +$3.50.  This should help slide me into contention for Surfers Poker’s Sit & Go Championship.  In addition, I had a decent cash game session and for the first time my bankroll has eclipsed the $2200 mark.

I’m disappointed with Gus Hansen’s new poker site, ThePlayr.  It seems you can’t join the site unless you join Full Tilt.  As a long-time member of Full Tilt, that means I can’t access some areas of the site which is really disappointing.  I’ll have to check out the site again tomorrow as I am half asleep and maybe I missed something.  The only other option available would be to risk a banning through multi-accounting which is so not worth it.  Multi-accounting on any online poker site is a huge no-no and it wouldn’t be worth the risk to gain access to some of the information on Gus’ site. 

The Aussie Millions is going on without me despite my attempt to win the Full Tilt contest last month.  It’s been a star-studded list of winners.  Jimmy "Gobboboy" Fricke won Event #3.  Someone named Marlon Goonawardana held off Michael Binger in Event #6.  Full Tilt pro Lee Watkinson won Event #7 and broke $1 million in earnings in Omaha tournaments.  Full Tilt’s Howard Lederer won the $100,000AUS Buy-In event for a $1.1 million payday.  The event saw 25 players willing to pony up $100,000AUS ($88k in US $).

The Main Event just completed Day 1B and will conclude on Sunday.   

What happened this weekend?

• I won my 2nd event of Season III of the LAPT (my home game) and took home $302 to increase my total winnings to $2835 in 38 tournaments. 
• I went 3-1 again in the playoffs and am now 6-0 in games not involving the Giants.
• I failed to cash in the HORSE Championship but I did play-by-play for the final table which was fun. (I could only think of three songs about horses!)
• I failed to cash in the Silver Iron Man thanks to a bad beat.
• My bankroll climbed back to the $2125 range.
• Steps were taken to wrap up the Stake & Stock event on Surfers Poker as it grew closer and closer to a close.  The $2.20 Satellites to the Sunday Night Guaranteed tournaments contain the worst caliber of player I have ever played with.
• I played well enough over the weekend to repair all of the damage done by my Sit & Go Madness fiasco.  My Sharkscope is back where it was a week ago… flirting with +$200.

Sunday’s Actual Results

San Diego 28, Indianapolis 24 (Prediction: San Diego 24-21)

LT got hurt, Merriman was OK but nothing special… but the Chargers came through in a big way.  Norv Turner!  Who knew?  Now, the Chargers must face the daunting task of trying to knock off the undefeated Patriots and they might have to do it without Phillip Rivers, Ladainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates may not be healthy.  No matter how my heart feels, I doubt there is any reason I can come up with to pick the Chargers but I know who I will be rooting for.

NY Giants 21, Dallas 17 (Prediction: Cowboys 27-20)

I’m 0-2 in picking Giants games and Packers fans everywhere are praying I don’t pick the Packers next week.  I did say that Romo was capable of a clunker at any point and there was another.  Romo has come out of his first two appearances in the NFL Playoffs not looking Playoff-ready.  And now I still have to suffer watching a Manning in the Championship Round of the Playoffs.

As far as the Marino thing, I know that public opinion would put Marino in the Top 10 of all quarterbacks but I have to disagree.  Here’s why:

First, anyone that has won two Super Bowls would have to go ahead of him.  That puts Montana, Brady, Elway, Staubach, Aikman, Starr and Bradshaw ahead of him.  That puts Marino no higher than 8th.

Next, I have to look at those players who have won one Super Bowl and would be considered the majority of their teams offense or gone to the Super Bowl more than once.  That puts Favre, Peyton Manning and Steve Young ahead of Marino to move him to 11th (out of the Top 10).

Then, there are the debatable ones.  I put four more QBs ahead of him but there are another 5 or so that I would accept an argument for.  Here are the four I felt were definitely ahead: Johnny Unitas, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton and Jim Kelly. 

Beyond that, I think there are a few that could be put in Marino’s class.  Len Dawson, Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Sonny Jurgensen and Phil Simms would all be comparable to Marino in their accomplishments with the exception of Marino’s inflated numbers.  In the end, I decided against those QBs and settled with Marino at 15th but I can’t see putting him any higher.

Debunking the usual pro-Marino arguments

"LOOK AT HIS STATS!"

Which one?  The 252 interceptions? Or the 8,000+ pass attempts (1,100 more than any player in the history of the NFL with the exception of Brett Favre).  It’s pretty easy to rack up the yards and TDs when all you do is drop back and launch 50 times a game. 

"LOOK AT HIS SUPPORTING CAST!"

Would that be 3-time Pro Bowler and 2-time All-Pro Mark Duper?  Or maybe 4-time Pro Bowler and 3-time All-Pro Mark Clayton?  How about when they added 5-time All-Pro and Pro Bowler Keith Jackson?  Or at the very end of Marino’s career when he had 2-time All Pro and 5-time Pro Bowler Irving Fryar to throw to.

"OK… SO HE HAD SOME RECEIVERS TO THROW TO… BUT WHAT ABOUT A RUNNING GAME?"

First of all, let’s get something straight, Marino would have never accepted a role where he wasn’t the main weapon.  Watch any game led by Marino and this guy threw more fits on the sideline than TO and Randy Moss combined.  The ‘86 Dolphins were 4th in Yards/Attempt in Rushing but 28th in attempts.  They were 10th in Yards/Attempt in ‘87 but 24th in attempts.  The team then continued to refuse to run the ball and built their team around the passing game.

The one argument that no one can dispute is that an 8-9 playoff record and just one Super Bowl appearance is not amongst the Top 10 playoff performers at the QB position.

GoogleTrends Hot List - 01/14/08 @ 10:30 PM

• burl
  A burl is a rounded outgrowth on a tree trunk or branch that is filled with small knots from dormant buds.
• Belinda Gavin
  Episode 3 of ‘American Gladiators’ featured this rodeo pro.  I haven’t seen it but I guess she made a splash at some point.
• zetia
  A cholesterol-reducing drug has caused a stir. 
• Knicker Picker
  This is turning out to be the strangest Hot List yet… is this a bad NBA hoops handicapper?
• Hasan Elahi
  An FBI target has put his life online. 
• vytorin
  The other cholestoral-reducing drug that has caused a stir.
• flip i flap
  What?
• unabomber manifesto
  I’m afraid to look out of my window, I might see a Delorean. 
• BPM 37093
  The largest diamond was found at the heart of this star.  It is a diameter of 40000 kilometers.  It is 50 light years from Earth but there are a number of women out there that feel that isn’t too far to travel to pick up. 
• New York sex tape
  The star of VH1’s ‘I Love New York’ might be on a sex tape… catch it this week on the "Who Gives A Shit" Channel! (Broadcast in HD, of course!)

Saturday was a fairly successful day as I picked both winners in the NFL, I was profitable overall for the day, I turned my free $20 shot on Gutshot Poker into $25 and I took down our home game tournament in stylish fashion.  On the flip side, I was bad beat out of the Silver Iron Man despite playing extremely well and I failed to qualify for Surfers Poker’s HORSE Championship.  My bankroll is now at $2119+$25 on Gutshot which bumps it to $2144.

Yesterday’s predictions went fairly well:

Actual Results

Packers 42, Seahawks 20 (Prediction: Packers 27-17)

"Green Bay rolls as Shaun Alexander fails to show again."  I think that’s a pretty accurate description of the game as Green Bay outscored Seattle 27-3 after spotting the ‘Hawks 14 points.  Shaun Alexander had 9 carries for 20 yards.  The Pack are going to be tough for whoever wins today.

Patriots 31, Jaguars 20 (Prediction: Patriots 31-17)

A late Jags field goal robbed me of the glory of being spot on in this game.  Who can beat the Patriots?  I think the answer might be no one.

Sunday’s Round Two Predictions

San Diego 24, Indianapolis 21

Here’s another example of where I may be picking with my heart rather than my head.  This got me in trouble last week when I picked the Bucs to beat the Giants when I actually didn’t think it was going to happen.  This time I have a little more faith in the Chargers as they come into the playoff game with 7 straight wins and boasting bragging rights against Indy since they beat them earlier in the year.  The problem is going to be that Indy is a juggernaut at home… but they are just 3-3 against playoff teams and 0-3 versus playoff teams not from Florida.  LT and Shaun Merriman have gigantic games and the Peyton Manning I remember from two playoff seasons ago will return… and I’ll call last year a fluke.

Cowboys 27, Giants 20

This game will go back and forth but the Cowboys will prevail.  The Eli Manning for President campaign will come to a screeching halt after this week’s game although Tony Romo still makes me nervous as he’s always capable of putting up a clunker.  My prediction is TO plays and has a big game.

So, I’m 5-1 in 6 games picking winners yet I haven’t had a strong enough feeling about any game with the exception of the Packers yesterday to put any $$$ on them against the spread.

I can’t get my bankroll to $2200 and I’ve now dipped back down below $2100 again.  I’m now at $2070 and haven’t had much success lately without following it up with at least a set back or two.

The NFL playoffs are down to 8 teams with 3 of them featuring quarterbacks that I would consider to be Top 10 Quarterbacks not just currently in the NFL but in all-time NFL history: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.  Before I get into that list, I will make my Saturday picks:

Green Bay 27, Seattle 17

Green Bay rolls as Shaun Alexander fails to show again.  I was counting on him last game but he never showed and I’m assuming theirs nothing left in the tank.  Favre plays well and continues on this magical run.

New England 31, Jacksonville 17

This is that game where everyone has decided to annoint the Jags as the great underdog that for some reason is now considered to be destined for greatness but I think it might be time for a reality check.  The Pats haven’t lost all year, and to the chagrin of Mercury Morris, they aren’t losing this week either. 

Saturday is the HORSE Championship qualifier on Surfers, the Silver Iron Man on Full Tilt and the Bounty tournament at our home game for the LAPT.  I need to step up my game and get back into the groove.

Finally, back to my list of the Top 10 Quarterbacks in NFL History and where Marino would fall on my list (an argument I will elaborate on a later date!):

1. Joe Montana
2. Tom Brady
3. John Elway
4. Steve Young
5. Brett Favre
6. Johnny Unitas
7. Roger Staubach
8. Peyton Manning
9. Troy Aikman
10. Bart Starr
11. Terry Bradshaw
12. Warren Moon
13. Fran Tarkenton
14. Jim Kelly
15. Dan Marino