Mission WSOP

Today, I struggled but still managed to get back on track with a winning day.  Low limit is so rough to play because it is such a small amount of money to win.  I was able to claw, bite and scrape my way to a +$4.23 to $194.23.  I’m slowly sliding backward on my pace and now just 4 days ahead of the pace needed to pull this off.  But it’s way too early to have any reaction to my progress.

I’ve obviously spent a lot of time talking about poker since embarking on this hare-brained quest, partially because I’m an ego maniac and love attention and partially because if I could pick one thing to do 24 hours a day, it would be poker.  It doesn’t even have to be playing it.  It could be watching it, talking about it, writing it, whatever.  If there were a 24-hour poker channel, I’d be the #1 viewer.  The thing that is most difficult though is having a discussion with a non-poker player or someone who fails to really understand the game.  It usually always ends up coming down to a discussion of the non-poker member of the conversation discounting poker as a game of skill.

Recently, I have had a few of those discussions with my brother who consistently fails to grasp the level of skill involved in poker.  The first discussion occurred when watching Poker After Dark two weeks ago.  The hand involved Clonie Gowen who held Ace-3 suited.  She was the big stack and made a raise only to have another player go over the top all-in but that player was short stacked.  That player held pocket Kings.  At that point, I quickly did the match and figured she would be getting better than 2-to-1 on her money so she had to call.  Of course, my brother disagreed because all she had was an "ace with a three".  I tried to break down the math and it helped that the percentages were right there on the screen but he just didn’t get it.  The discussion then became rather juvenile and unproductive and every hand after that the comment was made that whatever the player had was not as good as an "ace with a three".  Clonie did call and won the hand when she hit the ace. 

The second discussion occurred tonight when talking about the Final Table of the WSOP.  I was criticizing Danny Sheridan’s oddsmaking on the players at the Final Table of the Main Event and I commented that Sheridan’s odds took very little into account the skill of the player and focused mainly on the chip stacks.  My brother felt that the odds should basically be made based on chip stacks because if they made it this far, they were all about the same skill level.  Once I attempted to argue that that was not the case as there were players with serious deep tournament experience still remaining and that some of the players may have defied the odds slightly to get this far, the discussion broke down into a commentary on luck vs. skill.  Rather than bore you with the details of this inane argument, luck is absolutely a factor when it comes down to individual isolated results but overall success in poker comes down to the skill level of the player involved.

Here’s a few analogies that bring to light the luck vs. skill argument.  In an individual sport such as boxing, a boxer could outbox his opponent for 11 rounds and then get caught with a crisp shot in the 12th round and go down and not get back up.  Despite 11/12th of the fight being dominated by that boxer, they lose.  If you look at the Mike Tyson-Buster Douglas fight, you will struggle to find someone to say that Douglas was the more skilled boxer going in yet he won the fight.  I’m not saying it’s luck, it just is what it is.  Then there’s the ‘86 World Series.  The Red Sox were almost the World Series Champions that year.  Unfortunately, the ball went through Buckner’s legs.  The last time I checked, no one has discounted the Mets World Series Championship because they only won because they got lucky that the ball went through Buckner’s legs.  That’s just part of the game apparently. 

Dumbest Person In The World Candidate #2

The football world is filled with dumb players and the first two candidates are from the world of football.  Michael Vick could be headed to jail in the near future due to his possible involvement in illegal dog fighting and cruelty to animals.  The details of the crimes are grim and include a losing Bad Newz Kennel dog being doused with water and electrocuted.  What’s the Bad Newz Kennel?  Apparently, it is the Kennel that Vick says he had nothing to do with but witnesses and other circumstantial evidence would say otherwise… like a reference on his own webpage that lists his hometown as Newport News (BadNewz).  So far, Vick has played dumb but dug himself a deep hole that he may not be able to wiggle his way out of.  The hole is much deeper than any of the shallow graves located on his property for the mistreated animals that either were killed during their barbaric battles or afterward if they let down their owners.  The biggest challenge is going to be that while Vick has proven on the football field that he can get out of the most unlikely situations, his athleticism will not help him here and without that, Vick could be dead in the water.  So, either Vick is a victim as he claims and would make him one of the dumbest people alive as he pins the blame on family members who took advantage of his hospitality and used his home as a dog gladiator arena OR he’s even dumber because he put a lucrative career on the line in order to enjoy watching a highly illegal activity take place.  We crucify Barry Bonds because we think he used steroids and Terrell Owens because we think he’s a selfish jerk… I’m hoping the Vick backlash is a little tougher on him.  If you are unsure why I say this still, read the details for yourself.

So, life is not heavenly in the City Of Angels for Becks.  The long flight from England has reaggravated David Beckham’s ankle injury and now his long-awaited (and televised) American debut against Chelsea this weekend may not happen.  The US soccer world (and ESPN who can’t stop plugging the event) is on pins and needles waiting to see what will unfold.  They will be steaming if Beckham is on the bench at gametime.  It won’t be the first group that would be steaming over the Beckham effect.  Beckham has alienated his teammates over his pay as Becks will make $6.5 million this year. The team’s other top player and captain, Landon Donovan, will make $900k.  There’s even one player that is slated to make $18,000 this year.  A shift manager at McDonald’s makes a little over $20,000.  The rumors have swirled that Becks will be made captain and Donovan will push for mutiny or the team may go on strike… all is not well in Los Angeles.  You gotta love a good soap opera.

All is well in Vegas as the 2007 WSOP comes to a close.  They are down to heads up action and Jerry Yang is absolutely dominating the Final Table.  Yang’s $225 satellite may become an $8 million + payday as he currently sits at $117 million in chips versus Tuan Lam’s $10 million in chips.  Yang has put 6 of 7 of the players to the rail including my pick, Alex Kovchenko who held on to finish 4th.  Yang took out players so fast in the beginning that it looked like it was going to be one of the fastest final tables ever.  He eliminated players on Hand #15 (Philip Hilm), Hand #21 (Lee Watkinson), Hand #28 (Lee Childs) and Hand #56 (Hevad "Rain" Khan).  His run was stopped by Raymond Rahme eliminating John Kalmar on Hand #60 and the newswire stirred at how the final table may wrap up in one of the quickest finals ever.  Then, down to the Final Four, it took 107 hands for a player to get eliminated and Yang did it again by eliminating Kravchenko.  Then he eliminated crowd favorite Raymond Rahme two hands later.

Yang’s domination is amazing… He won 67 of 169 hands getting down to heads up and so far in 21 hands of heads up play (more than the last two years of heads up play combined), Yang has won 17 of them for a total of 84 out of 190.  If Yang doesn’t win, it will be a storied collapse.  if he does, it will be one of shear and utter domination.  Unfortunately, it’s 6:15 AM here and I have work… guess I’ll be finding out who wins when I wake up.  If Lam makes a comeback, it may still be going on.